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Calculating Your Risk of Heart Disease |
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Harvard Heart Letter | May 2008
A new crystal ball
Calculating your chances of
having a heart attack or stroke, developing peripheral artery disease,
or dying from cardiovascular disease sounds like ghoulish business. Yet
it can be reassuring if your risk is low. And it can be a lifesaver if
a higher number prompts you to make healthy changes.
The
earliest tool for estimating heart disease risk was developed by
researchers with the pioneering Framingham Heart Study. It helped
predict an individual’s chances of developing coronary artery disease,
the potentially deadly accumulation of cholesterol-filled plaque in
arteries that supply the heart muscle with oxygen and nutrients. That
tool was followed by others that covered stroke, heart failure, or
other individual cardiovascular conditions.
Now the
Framingham team is back with an updated quiz that gauges the overall
risk of cardiovascular disease. It assigns points for various risk
factors. Total points are then correlated with the chances of having a
heart attack or stroke or developing some other form of cardiovascular
disease over the next 10 years. Under 10% is considered low risk, 10%
to 20% is considered moderate risk, and over 20% is considered very
high risk. The new tool also presents risk in a new way. It estimates
your “vascular age” — how old your arteries are, regardless of how old you are.
This
isn’t the last word on the subject. Other risk calculators include
family history, insulin resistance, measures of weight, and other
predictors of cardiovascular disease. We won’t know which one offers
the most accurate snapshot of cardiovascular health until they’re
compared head to head.
When it comes to cardiovascular
risk, lower is better. Time-tested strategies for getting to “lower”
include controlling blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood sugar;
exercising; choosing a healthy diet; and not smoking.
What’s your 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD)?
Step 1: Calculate your cardiovascular risk points
Tally up your points from the six categories below.
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Risk factor
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Points
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Men
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Women
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1. Age
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30–34
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0
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0
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35–39
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2
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2
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40–44
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5
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4
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45–49
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6
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5
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50–54
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8
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7
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55–59
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10
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8
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60–64
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11
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9
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65–69
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12
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10
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70–74
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14
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11
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75+
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15
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12
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2. Total cholesterol
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<160
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0
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0
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160–199
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1
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1
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200–239
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2
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3
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240–279
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3
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4
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280+
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4
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5
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3. HDL cholesterol
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<35
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2
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2
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35–44
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1
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1
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45–49
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0
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0
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50–59
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–1
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–1
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60+
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–2
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–2
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4. Choose A or B.
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A. Systolic blood pressure (not treated)
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<120
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–2
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–3
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120–129
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0
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0
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130–139
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1
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1
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140–149
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2
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2
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150–159
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2
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4
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160+
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3
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5
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B. Systolic blood pressure (treated)
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<120
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0
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–1
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120–129
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2
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2
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130–139
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3
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3
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140–149
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4
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5
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150–159
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4
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6
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160+
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5
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7
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5. Smoker?
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No
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0
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0
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Yes
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4
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3
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6. Diabetes?
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No
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0
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0
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Yes
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3
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4
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Your total
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Step 2: Convert points to risk
Find your total points in the left column of the appropriate gender table below.
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Points for men
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10-year risk of CVD
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Vascular age (years)
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–3 or below
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Less than 1%
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Under 30
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–2
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1.1%
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Under 30
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–1
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1.4%
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Under 30
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0
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1.6%
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30
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1
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1.9%
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32
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2
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2.3%
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34
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3
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2.8%
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36
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4
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3.3%
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38
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5
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3.9%
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40
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6
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4.7%
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42
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7
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5.6%
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45
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8
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6.7%
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48
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9
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7.9%
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51
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10
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9.4%
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54
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11
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11.2%
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57
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12
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13.2%
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60
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13
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15.6%
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64
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14
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18.4%
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68
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15
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21.6%
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72
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16
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25.3%
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76
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17
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29.4%
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80+
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18+
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Above 30%
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80+
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Points for women
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10-year risk of CVD
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Vascular age (years)
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–2 or below
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Less than 1%
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Under 30
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–1
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1.0%
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Under 30
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0
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1.2%
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Under 30
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1
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1.5%
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31
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2
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1.7%
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34
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3
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2.0%
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36
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4
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2.4%
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39
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5
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2.8%
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42
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6
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3.3%
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45
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7
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3.9%
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48
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8
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4.5%
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51
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9
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5.3%
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55
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10
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6.3%
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59
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11
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7.3%
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64
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12
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8.6%
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68
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13
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10.0%
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73
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14
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11.7%
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79
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15
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13.7%
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80+
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16
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15.9%
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80+
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17
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18.5%
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80+
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18
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21.5%
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80+
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19
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24.8%
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80+
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20
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28.5%
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80+
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21+
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Above 30%
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80+
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Newsflash
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Dr. Bernard Lown was interviewed by Jim Braude on Thursday, November 13, on NewsNight with Jim Braude on New England Cable News.
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Giving
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© Copyright 2008 Lown Cardiovascular Research Foundation
21 Longwood Avenue, Brookline, MA 02446
P: (617) 732-1318 F: (617) 277-0347
LCRF is a 501(c)3 non-profit.
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